i40 Intelligence

The Ledger

Every conviction call the desk makes, live-scored against end-of-day data — entry, thesis, confidence, falsifier, and how it’s actually going. Wins and losses stay on this page permanently.

#1 · Underweight BOTZ vs XLI

Opened 2026-07-02 · Issue 2026-W28 · horizon Late August 2026 · confidence 80%

+0.51ppas of 2026-07-09

The autonomous melt-up is priced; Section 232 tariff risk is not. Tariffs would shatter US deployer ROI and stall adoption — XLI's domestic base absorbs the friction.

Falsifier: Executive rejection of the Section 232 robotics tariff

Spread = pair performance in percentage points since entry; positive means the call is working. End-of-day data via Yahoo Finance, updated each trading day. Hypothetical scoring of published commentary — not a managed portfolio, not investment advice.