i40 Intelligence
The Ledger
Every conviction call the desk makes, live-scored against end-of-day data — entry, thesis, confidence, falsifier, and how it’s actually going. Wins and losses stay on this page permanently.
Opened 2026-07-02 · Issue 2026-W28 · horizon Late September 2026 · confidence 70%
The autonomous melt-up is priced; Section 232 tariff risk is not. Tariffs would shatter US deployer ROI and stall adoption — XLI's domestic base absorbs the friction.
Falsifier: Executive rejection of 232 action OR no formal Commerce report transmission by September 30, 2026 (hard temporal wall — amended Issue #5; prior expiry branch was unfalsifiable: report never transmitted, statutory clock never started)
Stop: +800bps adverse spread move before the catalyst window
2026-07-11 — Issue #1: confidence cut 80→70 for unhedged AI-beta contagion; hard stop set at +800bps adverse; falsifier amended to include statutory expiration of the Section 232 window. All argued in print.
2026-08-07 — Issue #5: structural amendment spent — expiry branch repaired to a hard Sept-30 transmission wall; horizon extended to late September. Confidence 70% unchanged. Argued in print.
Opened 2026-07-24 · Issue 2026-W31 · horizon Late October 2026 · confidence 65%
The Execution Divergence: HON's pure-play margin expansion (250-290bps raised guide, 22% Q4 IA target) vs ROK's legacy automation beta. Opened only after its printed condition precedent — HON's first standalone print defending the margin trajectory — was met.
Falsifier: ROK matches >200bps margin expansion, breaking the divergence; OR ROK's multiple re-rates and sustains a premium purely on AI-sentiment contagion, overriding its legacy execution ceiling; OR HON fails its margin floor
2026-07-31 — Issue #4: confidence cut 75→65 on a named factor-map error (ROK trading as a physical-AI derivative, not legacy beta); one structural amendment spent re-aiming the falsifier at sentiment re-rating. Argued in print.
2026-08-07 — CLOSED +5.83pp — falsifier triggered: ROK printed +280bps enterprise margin expansion vs the >200bps threshold. Closed in profit to preserve falsifier integrity ('we do not lawyer our own rules just because we are winning'). Calibration entry #001: 65% → WIN. Dissent (mechanism-over-letter) printed in Issue #5.
Spread = pair performance in percentage points since entry; positive means the call is working. End-of-day data via Yahoo Finance, updated each trading day. Hypothetical scoring of published commentary — not a managed portfolio, not investment advice.